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Subproject 2: Future Scenarios

This subproject will investigate how automated road transport systems fit into the expected scenarios for advanced urban transport in the future, particularly analysing how they will contribute to sustainability. The various modes, based on the state of the are of today, that serve as a starting point for further research on advanced road transport are:

  • Cybercars
  • High-tech buses
  • Personal rapid transit
  • Advanced city cars
  • Duela mode vehicles

The point of view for transport demand and sustainable mobility standards will be respectively 2050, 2030 and 2015.

Tools for cities and operators will be developed to analyse the transport requirements in a given urban environment and to calculate the effects of a range of system options.  These tools will focus principally on the shorter timescale of 2015.  The tools will help to answer the following questions:

  • What will be the impact of a given advanced road transport system in a given city if applied now or in the next decade?
  • How transferable are the results from one case study city to another?
  • Is there likely to be an acceptable business case for introducing a particular form of innovative technology in a specific city or city type?
  • Can safety and security concerns be fully met by a given form of advanced road transport system in a given context?

In addition to these tools, the other products which have already been produced, are:

  • A state of the art review of the understanding of the contribution of the different forms of advanced road transport, the contexts within which they might operate, and the tools available for predicting and assessing their impact
  • A problem assessment with regard to urban transport of people and goods and identification of possible intervention areas for automated road transport systems
  • A set of urban transport innovation scenarios for future urban transport including the implementation trajectories/road maps towards these scenarios.

End users
The sub-project will provide a context for the work in sub-projects 3 and 4, and provide direct input to the evaluation in sub-project 5.  It will work closely with the case study cities and to a lesser extent the demonstrators in sub-project 1.

The case study cities will thus be specific end users, for whom we will provide predictive models and policy assessments.  More generally the scenarios and tools which we will develop will be available for any city wishing to consider the application of advanced road transport, and for consultants and others advising them.  System developers should also find the products of value in helping to assess the potential for their new technologies.

Work packages
Sub Project 2 consists of five work packages:

  • WP 2.1: State of the art
  • WP 2.2: Scenario building
  • WP 2.3: Analysis tools
  • WP 2.4: Business cases
  • WP 2.5: Legal and administrative issues




high-tech buses

personal rapid transit

advanced city cars

dual-mode vehicles

size vehicle

small - middle




based on a normal car

type of service

individual or collective



carsharing services

individual use and carsharing services

type of ‘load’

passengers or






application area

e.g. city centres







automated or driver assistance

fully automated

driver assistance, access control & advanced communications

manually and fully automated











zero or ultra-low pollution




air tire on road






preferably on own track

dedicated infrastructure





in principal street level